Saturday, June 14, 2014

Independence day - closer, than the Clippers sales




There was a film made at 1996. Will Smith was great in that!





At 1996 our current president of the United States was 37 years old. He worked as a civil rights attorney at that time… He went to see this movie and for sure he decided that one time he would have to save the whole World!








However there was a small problem… That was again a white guy, who saved the World! Since Sammy Davis Jr. was acting in the “Rufus Jones for President” at 1933, there were several Afro-American presidents to save the United States and even the entire World!
But my favorite was Morgan Freeman in the “Deep Impact”… That time Barack was representing the 13th district (lucky number right?) of the Illinois State and had no success to enter to the House of Representatives…

Freeman was not so tall and handsome as Barack, but look at his body language, smart, rational and able to convince the people, that him, and only him can save the World!

Am I mistaken, if I suspect Barack those times to stand in front of the mirror trying to imitate Morgan? Let’s agree – I would not be far from the truth…



"Day of Russia" kicked off yesterday… In popular language in Russia they also call this day, as the “day of independence”… However Russia since the Tatar’s invasion was mostly independent… So the day refers on signing of the documents of the State Sovereignty of the Russian Federation on a sunshiny day in June 1990…

By the way this day also remembered as the final day of the Soviet Empire…


Here you are the group photo about that particular day....





But let's come back to Mr. Freeman - it is a fact, that the US has never came into a situation to save the World yet.

But your should remember well the name of Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov. On September 26, 1983, he was the duty officer at the command center for the Okonuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile was being launched from the United States.

Petrov judged the report to be a false alarm, and his decision is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in large-scale nuclear war. Investigation later confirmed that the satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned. (from wikipedia)







I hope you like this guy… Hollywood did not like him yet… So there is no film about him saving the World from a real nuclear war… For his misfortune he was not an American and not as handsome as Morgan Freeman.




But lets go back to our original topic…

Since Ronnie Reagan all the US presidents taking the oval office are implanted with the vision of being responsible for the entire World.

Just like our good old Superman…




Most probably the US public wanted to see them like this. But did those guys ever thought, that other folks around the World might not be so enthusiastic about this?










I kept shut up in my blog for a while, as could not keep up with all the mess around our little globe.
Last time we were talking about Syria. And Mr. Kerry suggested to knock the current regime out and to support the Syrian rebels...

Then now suddenly those Syrian rebels start to become criminals. And cruel islamic foreign mercenaries... Since they have attacked and keeping under control nearly one third of Iraq…

Fantastic – and this came as a huge surprise for the great NSA. Who obviously still keener to listen Angela, the allies and what is going on in your bedroom than some problematic places…


The Iraq army was so well trained, that after the first big woahhh from the rebels, two army divisions armed with the most modern US technology have manage to run away and vanish so fast, that the rebels could even collect their shoes together with all their brand new shiny US military equipment…

Few hundred guys shooed away and made to melt down all the army forces around Mosul… Great!!!


You guys made a great contribution for Russia! Think about this for a moment…

The oil price is up!  (No worry later it will also be down, when the dollar will go upJ)… And will keep going down and up up. For sure… Just to burn down few more refineries in Iraq… You can bet!


 First time in the history the whole World pays not only the US war games, but also they will pay this time the Russians for Crimea and the “sanctions” and the whole Ukrainian “adventure”…

Can you hear how the money flows???? You know where it flows now Mr. Kerry?



Please say big thanks to Mr. Kerry – the master of foreign politics!

He supposed to have not plastic, but probably brain surgery... Do you agree with me?












So far so good… As we can see now it is such a mess all around, that it is hard to find where to look…

In my favorite Bangkok – hmmm military rule;
In other all time favorite – hmmm… how to call this? Why you had to send Mubarak to the hospital?

Syria… Who won the elections? Just that you have now over hundred thousand killed and millions on run. Great!!!
 
Yemen?
Kabul?
Karachi?
Doneck?
Nigeria?
Libya?
Sudan?
Pyongyang?




Do we have any other place to screw up? No.. matter fact there is not much left...

How long time it will take to our Presidents instead of fighting the devil and the evil, and making the multiple acts of exorcisms, to put together that not so complicated puzzle in the region and make all this guys to talk to each other…

Or they might have no interest for this? I mean not those guys in there, but another ones, who got some different ideas around the Congress right? Monsanto? McDonalds? Pfizer, Merck, Microsoft, Exxon, GE and you name it…


And then some big fat boy on the CNN tries to explain to me, that we see the things not right… What is right?

Where is that global stability we are always promised about Mr. President? 

Time to think a bit… And open your ears… And go back and think again.

And before you start to believe, that the II. World War started by D-day, better you start to evaluate yourself as you are and what you are…

Otherwise posing in the mirror will not help anymore – even you want to look like that macho Morgan Freeman…


As this is in here a real world!

 
And remember one golden rule!








Prevention is better, than cure… That should be the main rule of international politics… Why it is not yet implemented…

That is a good question.





Self-restriction is the best way for prevention!

Otherwise what kind of example you show for others… It is time now to start to practice the self restriction…

And you got not much time for further delay... Otherwise 

What?

Asia will overgrow you 3 times, then they will play with you the mouse and the cat game… And they will have the same fantasy as you now, that they are the ruler of the World!

Think about it…






But lets go back a bit to some economy…

And let me have just a moment.

Once upon a time as a young economist I had a pleasure to have a session of economics with one of my professors… It was not a very ordinary place for lectures, but it happened. In a small pub behind our University… A wine pub… There were not many students, only those, who liked that cheap white wine…


Do you like this photo?   I love that Fiat from Poland – called “Polski Fiat” – an icon from our time of 70s and 80s…

So the professor said plenty of useful things… But one stays with me even now.

He said – there is no dead economy. 





Every economy works – this or that way. This is the nature of the economy. Any economy...

You must only find out what is the better way for the economy to work!
 


Hmmm… stop for a moment – don't you think this is the main question for anyone to find out? Or you think I am a bloody foul right? Together with that professor…

Since that day sometimes at early 1983 this idea made me obsessed… Do we know how to make the economy working better?



Are we sure, that all our American supermen want the economy to work better?


Or they just want to make sure that they always save someone... If there is no one to save, they will make sure to create a situation where they can. Am I right Mr. Superman?


What does it mean for an economy to work better?


Think about it… What does it mean better?

You must hate me, but I still will take you back in time… The time, when the first revolution happened – at least the first one we know about…

We go back for about 4.500 years… We shall take a look into the kingdom of the Sumerian city of Lagash. (Uhh sounds like goulash right?)

Here the king Lugalanda based his power on the church. The priests for many years have gained an extreme power and they also had control over the king himself. The priests also took over majority of the land and controlled every kind of business, like fishing or trading. They kept for themselves higher and higher portions of goods in form of taxes.

In the city of Lagash there was no money yet. People exchanged their goods. In Lagash the people lived very poorly. After sometimes the people turned against the priests and the king,. They have selected a new king.
Urukagina first replaced all the corrupt officials and priests. He also reduced the taxes and guaranteed the property.

We can regard Urukagina as the first economic reformer in the known history and also the first person freeing his own people and introducing a legal code for this purpose.

Urukagina’s reforms did not lived long, as after 8 years of rein Lugalzaggesi the ruler of Umma defeated him. And united the Mesopotamian states.

So what is the point on this first recorded economic problem?

It is simple…

Urukagina came to power due to the wrong way of re-distribution… Why he could not keep his new system longer?

We do not really know. But we can guess…

The economic system he built was good for the people, but was not efficient enough…

Lugalzagesi must have had a more efficient system. He not only could keep calm his own people, but he could manage to have a stronger army and better administration…

So what we need for a successful economy?

I will make you confused for a moment…

Nothing what you have seen as the economic indicators so often mentioned!

You need a proper system of redistribution and an efficiency growth…

Efficiency growth does not necessarily means nominal growth.. Right? So anything else is only fairy tales.


There is a prime minister in Small Sumerian land, who got the idea to reduce the costs of living for the people… However those costs are mainly market driven. So at the end of the day the infrastructure shall go down if we want to reduce those costs…

Next door to that country every other prime minister tries to increase the income for their people…

Which way you would choose?

And how you can increase the income of your people?

a/. Change the patterns of the re-distribution… take from wealthy and give to the poor… Or take from one wealthy and give to another wealthy?

I think this is not the best idea…

At least not the second one… By the way the poor will not finance your election campaign, so in a developing country they prefer to feed up their own wealthy, so they can help in any election outcome… It is also an ancient pattern... "panem et circenses"... It is cheaper to entertain the people by ideology and a bits of wealth, than to feed them properly... At least for sometimes...

So making fundamental changes in redistribution will take a lot of time and change in brain capacity to perform it… Lets see the other option...

b/. Make your economy more efficient…

Our today economic pattern is the growth… Yes, the growth can help many times… But the growth is something you cannot follow all the time…

You can hear often, that if the consumption does not go up, than the economy will be in trouble, than the Japanese and the Germans were the bad guys, as they like to save instead of spending…

My grandma said, “Easy money easy go”… So my fellow Americans it is time to think about the sentence of my Transylvanian grandma…


Until you do not learn the value of the money, you will always spend it easy… In fact you will spend always more, than you have earned…




And then you start to take that money from someone else, and then you need to have growth, to avoid the reduction of your consumption and to be able to repay your debt…





And if there is no growth, then you go bankrupt and you make sure others will also go bankrupt and at the end of the day all those guys, who landed you that extra money for you to spend over your capacity are the ones, who will pay your bills. And if not, than what?

Then you make all those troubles we were talking about at the first half of this blog…

You can call this a vicious circle… right?

No you do not need to call it so…



Especially not for those guys, like this old crazy guy – Donald Sterling… the old pervert, who hardly can open his mouth, but still talking bullshit and does not want to sell his Clippers for 2 billion dollars… It is not much money for a club, which he bought back in 80’s for 12,5 million.

Do you know why he does not want to sell that club?

That half dead guy does not like to pay taxes!!!!!

You know what is tax? It is the tool to operate an expensive administration and also in some rare places of the World is the tool to keep some acceptable level of living for your own population… You know, we called that redistribution right?


So as far as the reach do not like to pay taxes or in other word they do not like to share their wealth with the poor, we need to find another way around…

The moment we do not push the growth, we also do not stimulate the big fat bellies to grow among our nation. And we do not stimulate over spending in general…

So than how we can get out of this problem?

We stimulate the efficiency! And here we came back on point b/. of this post…
 
How we do so, I will let you think till next time…

And I hope there will not be more crisis situations, so I will not be all the time depressed of all this rubbish going on around our beautiful World…




 And sorry, I could not resist to present to you with Mme Sterling... Yes, the wife... 

Can you believe, that she can spend 2 billion in her remaining life?










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