Monday, October 21, 2013

Corleone or Breivik family?




This year the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2013 was awarded jointly to Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert J. Shiller "for their empirical analysis of asset prices".


In other words the Nobel Prize for economy this year went for 3 guys, who worked to predict the bubbles of the financial markets.

The fun is, that 3 guys shared the prize and they do not agree about what they say… http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/business/3-american-professors-awarded-nobel-in-economic-sciences.html?_r=0


My other problem is, what we were already talking about – the majority of economists are “corrupted” – for example Mr. Fama is sitting in the board of an investment company… http://www.dfaus.com/firm/academics.html

The company is handling about 300 billions of assetsJ). So it comes one more question – does Mr. Fama needs the money from the Nobel Prize… I am sure not…

Mr. Peter Hansen looks like a true scholar and Mr. Shiller sold his index many years ago, so probably made more than enough out of that, no matter, that his index being criticised all the time…

I am not sure, if this were the best candidates for the Noble prize, but in fact they also admit to make mistakes (I mean the Noble Prize Committee)…

One thing we can learn from this…. For the next year we need to choose 3 professors, one, who claim he knows how far a balloon can be blown up, another who denies this and a third one, who can create a mathematic model for this…

So please do not give up, and start to blow balloons!



Do you remember your first balloon? Was it on the street or at home at your first birthday party?

Children love balloons. I got my first balloon (at least the one I remember) at a 1st of May Labor Day celebration around 1965.

And I was very happy with that; until some bad boy half an hour later blew it up for me, even he wounded my hand… I got scared… Really scared – after this I did not want to have a balloon for sometimes…

So the governments are – that is why they pay money for those who pretend to be able to predict those dangerous balloons…

Do you remember when did you first time tried to blow a balloon?

Do you remember when your child first learned to do it? Or does your child knows at all how to do it?


We spoke so much about economy, but without talking about about the basic segment of it, 
the FAMILY
we will not understand anything.

So let’s speak about the family…

I have searched hard and found a very few definitions of it. And frankly speaking I cannot agree with any of those…

“The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State” (United Nations, 1948).

“Society’s definition of ‘family’ is rapidly expanding and has come to include single parents, biracial couples, blended families, unrelated individuals living cooperatively, and homosexual couples, among others. Unfortunately, family policy has been slow to catch up to changing trends in modern lifestyles” (Crawford, 1999, p. 271).
“Ultimately, I define ‘family’ as the smallest, organized, durable network of kin and non-kin who interact daily, providing domestic needs of children and assuring their survival” (Stack, 1996, p. 31).
“…an employee’s spouse and dependent, unmarried children under age 19 (age 23 or 25 if a full-time student and dependent upon the employee for support)” (Abbott, 2002, p. 3).
“Society’s definition of a family has expanded to include ‘single parents, biracial couples, blended families, unrelated individuals living cooperatively, and homosexual couples, among others’” (Crawford, 1999; Kenyon et al., 2003, p. 571).
“Most uses of the word family in research indicate that it was often defined as ‘spouse and children’ or ‘kin in the household’. Thus ‘family’ as defined in economics, sociology, and psychology often was a combination of the notions of household and kin… An exception to this standard definition of family is in clinical and counseling psychology, where family includes one’s family of origin (parents and siblings) in addition to spouse and children” (Patterson, 1996; Rothausen, 1999, p. 818).
“There are diverse types of families, many of which include people related by marriage or biology, or adoption, as well as people related through affection, obligation, dependence, or cooperation (Rothausen, 1999, p. 820).”
“We define family as any group of people related either biologically, emotionally, or legally. That is, the group of people that the patient defines as significant for his or her well-being” (McDaniel et al., 2005, p. 2).

“A family consists of two or more people, one of whom is the householder, related by birth, marriage, or adoption and residing in the same housing unit. A household consists of all people who occupy a housing unit regardless of relationship. A household may consist of a person living alone or multiple unrelated individuals or families living together” (U.S. Census Bureau, 2005).
“…the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) adopted the definition of a ‘network of mutual commitment’ 
Make sure you read all for yourself and really try to compare to what you yourself think about the family.
One matter is positive, that the UN chart wants to protect it (I mean the family), however this sentence was created at 1948 and obviously no one paid any attention to it. The other worrying matter is, that it is mixed most of the time with the “household”…
The official statistics can only deal with individuals or with family consisting of 1or 2 same or different sex people raising 1-2-3….xxx children. So called “households” – and our current economic research know nothing about the family, even some pretend to…
I have seen and experienced several cultures in this world. What was common in the way they consider what is a family?

-       Biologically linked people considered being a family; No matter they live or not under one roof, whether they are one or multiple household.
-       I have heard saying “close” family or “close” relatives and “far ones”… Those close ones usually close by biological link and should not be close by distance;
-       What is going on, if you establish a more close relationship with another person or marry him or her? I usually take the rule:

If A = B and B=C than A=C – that is the neutral approach;

 Means, that if we love each other as a new couple, than our families will also join each other and we suppose, that our families also will love each other or in other words our union creates the union of our families;
In the reality this should be a local custom into which family integrates the new couple;
-       the couple can stay 100% independent (the so called “modern approach”)
-       the couple stays in the girls family or boys family house; This can be a question of finance or living space, not a question of the tradition;
-       In Europe in general this is not regulated by any current custom – in the past the bride supposed to go to the groom’s home or to a new house built by his family ;
-       In Asia it is a general rule that the bride goes to the groom’s house. In fact the bride “integrates” to the grooms family.

Why is this so important?

For thousands of years even before the last Ice Age the human being was living in family formation; In fact any highly developed mammal lives in family formation;
This kind of organization proved to be the most efficient for the survival of the human kind as well.
It is not a mistake, that all the main religions support the family “model” and only that;

Our last chance to preserve some of the family “traditions” is about now. It is not a moral issue – it is entirely an economic matter. But this is the matter of our own survival as human beings.

Today the family tradition is strong, but started to melt down in Asia, Middle East and Latin America. In Europe and North America in majority of places the family already “melted down”. There are some rural areas, where people keep the family traditions, but in most of the cases the families, in their traditional meaning, even in the most traditional European areas like Greece, Italy, and Spain are gone…

In the past the wealth of the family identified its position in the society. The wealth could be raised not only by the achievements of the individuals in the family, but also by the size.
A century ago the family meant a 3-4 generation union of people living mostly in one household and their relatives living in the same or nearby settlements (villages or towns);
There was several type of families in the past – the integrating ones, the followers and the ones melted down.
Families with strong leadership in general were integrating – they were the ones collecting in themselves other families by marriages and friendships;
You can easily follow these trends if you check some remained family trees. Even those kept till now were from royals or noble families, still, you can follow the development or decline of each family…
In case such a “strong” family would start to decline, there were usually one or more followers, who would be able to take the place of the declining family. This worked like Darwin’s evolution model, till recently, than…
The industrial revolution melted down this model. And the globalization. In our time the free flow of resources and money requires free flow of labor. Or at least a relatively mobile labor to satisfy the demand of the flow of the resources and money. And it requires the INDIVIDUAL…


The same globalization created the consumer society. While in the production and services the efficiency is the main factor of the survival, until then on the consumption side the waste is the preferable behavior.
The traditional family waste far less and they are far more efficient than the new type of “consumer family” or the individual.
A recent study of TESCO chain revealed, that it is a huge amount of food wasted during the sales and consumption process… http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tesco-vows-to-act-after-study-confirms-huge-food-waste-8893015.html
Up to 30% of food is wasted right in the families!
It is evident, that in a large family any resource is used with much better efficiency, than in a small family.
Clothing, home appliances, furniture, housing, car and also the food. In fact we can state that from the economic point of view a large family is far more efficient, than a small family.
Is it good for raising the children? Yes – and I think it is not needed to specifically prove. Children raised in big families are better off in the life, than those raised within the 4 walls alone…
Large family model is a natural shield against most of the challenges of the modern society. Also a “bulletproof armour” against major local and global disasters;
And some would say, but in a 3-4 generation family you lose your “privacy”…. Yes, the privacy… One of the main terms of the consumer society.
You can see in any American film – the child closing down his or her room and playing the computer alone, the father is sitting in the garage and the mother is drinking in the kitchen.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding!
The Human Being is social, it needs interaction with others! It does not like to sit alone in a room! For sure, if it sits alone in a room, it will consume more food and alcohol, buy more computers, play more online games and need to visit its shrink more often.

Our todays challenge, that the children instinctively searching for community to interact with – if there is no family, they will try to find it somewhere else, or create it.

If you are lucky, than in sports, or some community activity, like a dancing group, some other self organized group or if you are not lucky, than your child will end up in a nice street gang or in another source of happiness, the drugs.

And if you really have no luck, then your child will become a MONSTER. Just like Anders Breivik. People with no proper interaction with the society can naturally become monsters. And those monsters are out there.

Sorry I chose a shot from Psycho.. As this looks much more friendly than that Breivik guy..


There were tons of books written about the psychological advantages to raise children in large multi-generation families.

They learn the basic human values, like humanity, solidarity, charity, interaction with different sex individuals, hierarchy, authority, leadership and they naturally learn the ECONOMY!

I will not repeat it now in details…

A recent survey in the US found, that 1 of 50 children in the US are homeless. Or yearly they have 1.5 million children on the street. http://edition.cnn.com/2009/US/03/10/homeless.children/

It looks like not good right?

I am sure most of you have seen the trilogy of the Godfather or at least the first movie. I love in there Marlon Brando. Did you ever think, why you like that film?

Why you feel sympathetic to those gangsters?

Simple, you see a big nice, unified family!

Did you ever think why the entire underground world, from Italian, Latino, through Japanese, Irish till Chinese mafia all of them using for the organizational model the family?

Simple – it is the most stable, must protective and most efficient way to commit crimes.

Do you think the family model is good for them, but not good for your life?

If you still have a grand-grandma or someone close to 100 years old in the family, just visit them, take a paper to make notes, or just record what she or he speaks. Ask them about their childhood and how their family looked like.

Listen and record carefully… Especially the structure of the family, the internal rules and the behavior, their activities.

Do not forget, this is the last chance for your children!

Your parents already know nothing about – they are the victims of the modern global society and the brainwash done on them in the school and the public media. You yourself are the second generation of the brainwashed. So you also far from knowing anything…

Or watch carefully the Godfather… A nice lesson how to organize a family… Just please use that knowledge for legal purposes only!


And when you go home, start to implement some of it… It is never late – just do it slowly, step by step – starting from your children… Lets say start to cook with them a meal – you know, the prehistoric man did the same around the fire?  

And make sure at least you learn your “close” family within certain time – it is always useful. And make sure you do not stop, until you do not find at least 100 of them!

Our modern society was the one destroyed the families, but in fact with today’s communication tools it is in many ways much easier to restore your family connections, than it would be possible even 25 years ago.

I am sure some of you made conference calls on skype – my question for you – when did you make, if you ever made a conference call with your family members?

 

And I let you think about this….

 


 

Friday, October 11, 2013

Losing the battles and winning the war, what a beautiful mind!



As usual, something important happened, that changed my original “schedule”. So we shall come back on one of our previous topic, due to a recent event;



General Vo Nguyen Giap died in a Hanoi hospital at the age of 102 (or 103 by the Vietnamese count).


“His surname Vo translates as "force" and his first name Giap means "strong armour", fitting perhaps for a man who helped bring about the defeat of major military powers.”









You may ask what all this to do with an economic blog? 




Besides the great respect to the General, yes, in fact a lot… But please be patient, we shall get there…

General Giap was undisputedly one of the best military strategists of the 20th century.

He used a number of unique tactics, like the "coordinated hit and run”, where the major objective was to occupy as much as possible enemy troops on alert, wear out their moral and distract their force.

“Giap was also the master of doing the unexpected. He played on the Western powers' belief that firepower alone determined victory. Their overconfidence and hubris was their downfall. 

No greater example of Giap's genius can be found than Dien Bien Phu. He demonstrated his flexibility and determination by having his men hand-transport artillery and anti aircraft guns into almost impenetrable terrain. By doing what his enemy considered impossible without modern means left the French garrison dumbstruck in an untenable position.”

http://www.dw.de/vo-nguyen-giap-a-master-of-revolutionary-war/a-17141733

At the same time he was able to maintain a high moral among his troops and the Nation.

“Giap understood that protracted warfare would cost many lives but that did not always translate into winning or losing the war. In the final analysis, Giap won the war despite losing many battles, and as long as the army survived to fight another day, the idea of Vietnam lived in the hearts of the people who would support it, and that is the essence of "revolutionary war."

"We had to use the small against the big; backward weapons to defeat modern weapons," Giap said.

 "At the end, it was the human factor that determined the victory."



All in all, the essence of the strategy is to adopt and to use the strategy of your enemy against him. Find your own weaknesses and use them as your power against your own opponent.

To force your enemy follow such a “game”, when he believes, that he is acting on his own, but in fact he is doing its actions the way you lay out.

This is in fact the most ancient eastern strategy, which Vietnam was perfecting for the last 5000 years. Seemingly very effectively.


There is one last sentence form General Giap:

"We can put the past behind," he said in 2000. "But we cannot completely forget it."

So one of the reasons we talk about this topic – just not to forget about it…

What is going on now? You remember the main topic!

Under the current GLOBAL economic rules the strong shall benefit, the weak shall suffer. Can we learn something form the General’s strategies? Certainly we should!




How important can be a proper strategy? It is decisive in most of the cases.




One of the worst military blunders of the history of mankind happened, when 100.000 british troops defending Singapore capitulated to 62.000 japanese troops of General Yamashita. The survivors you could see on the film “The Bridge on the River Kwai”…








Since then the World is laughing on British Lieutenant General A.E. Percival and Winston Churchill… 







Churchill admitted himself, that it was "the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British history."







Could be military tactics and strategies used in economic decision-making?

I let you think about this for yourselves…


And there is one more question…

Do we have a tool for how to use military tactics and strategies in our economic battles?



At 1903 December the 28th, a boy was born in Budapest, his name was Neumann János Lajos, as a first-born son of Neumann’s family.

We shall call him John later on.


So John happened to attend the Lutheran high school just meters from the place I started my primary school.

But the same place, the beautiful “Fasor” in Budapest could not influence me in having any particular talent in mathematics.

But John, or that time they called him “Jancsi”, was an extraordinary child prodigy in the areas of language, memorization, and mathematics. As a 6-year-old, he could divide two 8-digit numbers in his head. By the age of 8, he was familiar with differential and integral calculus. (Halmos, P.R. "The Legend of von Neumann". The American Mathematical Monthly-volume= 80 (4–year=1973): 382–394.)

When I was young, I was dreaming about to get just a little of the talent of that Jancsi from our neighbourhood, so with my classmates, we searched each house, each corner from the roof to the underground passages of that district, but no… We could not find the secret of Jancsi’s talent…

But we found something on those roofs, passages and under those old buildings. For Peter, Gabriel and me. We found there also something valuable - friendship, solidarity, unity and freedom. That is what escorts us during our life till now.

Jancsi got his Ph.D. at the age of 22 in Budapest.

Probably those were some special years. Jancsi was part of a Budapest generation noted for intellectual achievement: he was born in Budapest around the same time as Theodore von Kármán (b. 1881), George de Hevesy (b. 1885), Leó Szilárd (b. 1898), Eugene Wigner (b. 1902), Edward Teller (b. 1908), and Paul Erdős (b. 1913).

But let’s stay with Jancsi or better call him from now on, John…

At 1926 he was already in Berlin and in 1930 he was invited to Princeton!


He has invented many things – among them you may recall his works in quantum mechanics, linear programming, nuclear technology, computer science…

I had the honor to learn about his game theory at 1980. I must admit, that this theory fascinated me.

He improved and extended the minimax theorem to include games involving imperfect information and games with more than two players, publishing this result in his 1944 Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (written with Oskar Morgenstern).

So what is the Game theory about?



I must admit, that I was trying to find some human language explanation for you…

Trust me, it was hard…

So please now clear your mind and read the simplest explanation I have found:

“According to the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy online, game theory is: 

"the study of the ways in which strategic interactions among rational players produce outcomes with respect to the preferences (or utilities) of those players, none of which might have been intended by any of them."


According to Wikipedia, game theory "attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, in which an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others."

According to an online source, game theory is "a concept that deals with the formulation of the correct strategy that will enable an individual or entity, when confronted by a complex challenge, to succeed in addressing that challenge."



It involves the study of how the final outcome of a competitive situation is dictated by interactions among people involved based on the goal and preferences of those players, and on the strategy that each player employs. It was developed on the premise that for whatever circumstance, or for whatever game, there is a strategy that will allow one to win. “
http://math2033.uark.edu/wiki/index.php/Game_Theory


And then I also try to say it in even more simple way… 

The game theory helps you to find possible ways to interact with your opponents depending on their and your situation. Or how your decision will influence your result in a given situation. Sometimes you can follow the way to maximize your gains. However sometimes you need to focus on minimizing your losses… You and your opponent’s situation is modelled in a matrix (now they would call it simply as an excel sheetJ)

Why it is so important?


John with his colleague Oscar used this theory to model economic situations…

So still, why we need to know about it?

So simple… By this theory and further improved versions we can simulate almost all kind of behaviors and processes, including the war strategies…

And why we need to be able to simulate the war strategies?

Uhhh. Just to be able to make proper decisions for our economy… right?

We need to mention one more genius contributing the theory of games.

Most of you have seen the “A Beautiful Mind” – the Hollywood film with Russell Crowe.


The Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy unilaterally. If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing strategies while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium.


Stated simply, Amy and Wili are in Nash equilibrium if Amy is making the best decision she can, taking into account Wili's decision, and Wili is making the best decision he can, taking into account Amy's decision. Likewise, a group of players are in Nash equilibrium if each one is making the best decision that he or she can, taking into account the decisions of the others.


Game theorists use the Nash equilibrium concept to analyse the outcome of the strategic interaction of several decision makers. In other words, it provides a way of predicting what will happen if several people or several institutions are making decisions at the same time, and if the outcome depends on the decisions of the others. The simple insight underlying John Nash's idea is that one cannot predict the result of the choices of multiple decision makers if one analyzes those decisions in isolation. Instead, one must ask what each player would do, taking into account the decision-making of the others.
Nash equilibrium has been used to analyze hostile situations like war and arms races, and also how conflict may be mitigated by repeated interaction.

It has also been used to study to what extent people with different preferences can cooperate, and whether they will take risks to achieve a cooperative outcome. It has been used to study the adoption of technical standards, and also the occurrence of bank runs and currency crises. Other applications include traffic flow, how to organize auctions, the outcome of efforts exerted by multiple parties in the education process, regulatory legislation such as environmental regulations, and even penalty kicks in soccer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium


John Forbes Nash, Jr. earned a Nobel Prize at 1994 for his work.


One is for fact, both Johns were engaged in several super secret military and security projects in the USA, so part of their work we can expect to become public only at later stage. For Neumann it was known, that he participates in the US nuclear program. Most probably as consequence he developed a bone pancreatic cancer. John died at age 53, at the Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C. under military security lest he reveal military secrets while heavily medicated.


The work on the analysis of complex systems is constantly going on. The game theory earned several Nobel prizes for the later contributors. There appeared 3 dimensional, dynamic and other type of game theory models... However we are still lack of the ability to handle close to reality complex systems in the field of economics and far away of being understand and predict the economy in GLOBAL terms.

However there are some encouraging signs….

This year the Nobel Prize for chemistry went to a trio, who managed to model the chemical reactions… Or let’s say in simple words, they have invented something, which shall save a lot of time, money and efforts to conduct live tests.  They have managed to simulate chemical process by computer simulation… (By the way based again on the invent of the above mentioned John Neumann in quantum mechanics)…




“As with any model, the laureates' is a simplified version of reality. But at least it is no longer a dumbed-down one. Striving for anything else would, of course, be to miss the point of building a model in the first place. To quote Albert Einstein, a model must be as simple as possible—but no simpler. And in creating one, the three winners also brought chemistry fully into the computer age.”


http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/10/2013-nobel-prizes-chemistry

Please do not forget their names!

Martin Karplus of Harvard, Michael Levitt of Stanford and Arieh Warshel of the University of Southern California - well done gentleman!









If you have remained any more patience, I want to treat you with another interesting dilemma. The mathematic modelling of the Rubik's Cube...

What this cube does with economics?

If you love maths, just watch this video with a simple explanation and sometimes later we shall come back on this...

http://vimeo.com/63887614









Hopefully I did not make you too much tired this time, so we shall try to follow with some simple tactics next time...