It was no big celebration, however it happened.
The 5th
anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, or in other words the start of
the 2008 financial crisis.
5 long years – at least someone managed to take off the sign
of Lehman’s.
What else happened?
During the crisis plenty of promises were done. A lot of
money spent this or that way.
Barack Obama and Angela Merkel were reelected. Their people were happy with the way they solved the problems right?

Bo Xi Lai was
sentenced to life in prison and Ben is sent back to the elementary school to
get some additional English lessons.
And?
Some of those promises were fulfilled – on both ends of the
Ocean, by different ways, but the banks were forced to report more for newly
established state institutions,
the banks got some money and had to promise not
to spend this money on too much risky businesses.
China was shaken a bit and 80%
of the people on this planet Earth, mainly those, who are not citizens of those
great nations creating all this troubles suffered like crazy – only from
this burst of bubble…
And some survived. However largely this shadow is still
around us and plays a fun game of “catch me if you can” with the regulators (meaning governments)…
All in all we know one thing – the governments did a bit
of facelift on their financial system's regulation and in fact nothing changed at all.
The next bubble is nicely coded into the system.
Why we mention the shadows, as at the time the majority
opinion was, that the banks with the effective help of the shadows made far too
much risks and they were the root for the collapse..
It seems like yes…
And now there is a moderate debate about how and what to
regulate, is the regulation enough or too much…

In fact the moment the governments need to bail out their banks,
they must have the right to regulate them… This sounds logical.
However no one knows what would happen if they do not bail
out anyone. We can only refer to the past, if no bail out, than it would be
another Great Depression.
Just to remind you;
Franklin D Roosevelt had used his 1933 inauguration speech – in the depths of the Great Depression – to declare that the
"money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilisation".
But in our modern case the governments bailed out not only the banks,
but some shadows and a lot of private businesses as well, like the automobile
industry… And they definitely did not even think about Roosevelt's ideas.
Where is that money? In my previous post we called this
phenomenon as “meltdown”…
Hmm… There must be someone, like the magician in the circus…

Ohh no… the money in fact never disappears…
The one
disappeared was never there! Some guys were thinking it is there, but it was
not… That is the great act of real magic right?
How this can happen?
Not so simple, but we shall try to think about it…
The economists since thousands of years learned to think in
figures in two dimensions, same as the bankers since the times of the Templars. Value and time.
However in those good old times, they have learned
something. On one end someone gave money, on the other end someone else will
receive less. Someone asks for money, they lend them and after certain time
they have to give back more. If not, they will become bad boys…
But then it started to grow, that someone lends money to
another one, than that lends it further and further and each on this chain will
earn some money. The money started to flow anywhere and everywhere.
In the books this money multiplies… And it supposed to boost
the economy.
Originally it is assumed, that somewhere, somehow this money
shall be spent for some assets, goods or services.
But in our modern case our money just circling from one to
another financial institution and doing absolutely nothing, but multiplying
itself.
And it does it with the efficient assistance of the shadows…
In fact the shadows are the one making possible to make this vicious circle…
And not only – you need to have financial assets to increase
the effect even more…
Just an example;
Apple went public at 1980 and started to trade at USD 22 per
share and it grew till 5 years ago to USD 100 per share. Since last 5 years it
managed to grow from 100 per share to 700 and now it is around 500.
Does anyone
can honestly believe, that Apple net worst is up by 5 times since 2009? That is
the real magic right? Or we can ask ourselves is this a “fair value”?
But we need to come back to the money.
It is a strange thing – we have experienced a real
revolution in communication. I remember those days, when to make an oversea
phone call was a matter of half a day exercise. I also remember the times, when
in the night I was standing over the telex machine to get the latest Reuters
report on some commodities. Also, when change of “keys” between two banks took
several days, sometimes weeks.
Today the communications work with the speed of light.
And
the economic thinking works like an old and tired elephant.
You can ask me why? You look around. The crisis is 5 years
behind us, but in fact nothing substantial was done.
What was done is only temporary.
Any economist or even future economist in any school will
tell you, that the money flows on the easiest direction. Money does not like to
be regulated.
Same as a river – you can change its course, you can flow it
even reversed, but at the end of the day that river will appear somewhere you
even did not expected.
The comparison with the river is good, but it is also
wrong. The
water influenced by gravity usually flows down.
The money can flow in any direction.
Anywhere. But not like
gas, which fills up any empty space. No, the money flows where it likes to be,
where it can multiply.
So again regulate or not regulate?
My answer would be – first need to understand.
How?
Need to change our view and our approach to the question.
It is time to understand, that the economy is not a two
dimensional system, including the financial markets. They have three dimensions! Which on is the third? The space.
We also need to understand, that no static models can be
used to understand the current state of the economy. But this should be only
the beginning.
I admire A. Einstein for his brilliant mind.

I am looking forward to find an economist, who might comes
to the idea to apply the
E = mc2
in the economic
science.
We can start from the observation, that the economic processes are happening in separate time from their results;
It is like the magic. You come home and you see, that your
vase is standing on the table. But in fact it is broken long time already or it
does not belongs to you at all.
You only see something, but you do not know
about it. You remember the situation?
Ben wakes up 2 weeks before the Lehman’s
collapse and feeling a bit headache about the housing market. He goes to Barack
and says to him, that there is a bit of problem, but our economy is perfectly
strong… And Barack goes for golfing with no worry..
And Ben was standing at that time on a half melted iceberg, thinking,
that he is still in the middle of the North Pole… Is he so stupid? No, not
really…
In other words, in the economy things are happening not in
the time when we notice them and also not to the extent we expect them to be.
If you get sick, you can go to a doctor and he can say what
is your problem. The doctor can decide if he is going to operate you or send
you for further tests or just send you home and order you to sleep.
In the economy, when the sickness appears, it turns out to
be already there. Very simple – because of the nature of the economy and the
finance we see only the results, but even the results we never see in real
time. And here we come to the theory of economic relativity.
And there is one more question? Can we push back our
economies,
as they were before? Answer is no, absolutely not.
So after the 3 dimensions and relativity, we came to the
question of irreversible processes.
In the economy nothing is reversible. This unfortunately needs to be understood as a basic principle.
And the main problem of today’s economic advisors and
decision makers that they have learned a lesson and they also learned years ago
how to deal with certain situations.
They think they have their central banks, some finance
committees, ministries of finances, advisory and supervisory boards, and they
can regulate or deregulate the markets, increase or decrease the interest
rates, issue or buy back some bonds, print new money etc.

But
these are the tools of the prehistoric man who lived in
the cave and it took him half a day to ignite a fire…
The problem is not in the money, not in the regulation or
deregulation, not in the shadow finances and even not in the banks.
Unless we do not know how to understand the basic economic
and financial processes and will not put upside down all what we have learned
until now, we shall be nowhere…
In fact we shall be somewhere – we shall be back to good old
crises situations… Most probably more and more often and if not, than it means, that the crisis shall last for longer and longer periods...
Politicians usually love to scare their audiences, that the economy will stop, this or that will collapse. In fact the economy works at any time in every moment, the economy never stops. But it can be a pleasant experience from the participants or it can be a misery for all.
Let me come back to the shadows – the "bad guys" were
shrinking more than to half in those days of Lehman's collapse. By the way before those
turbulent days the shadows were bigger, than the “official” banking sector…
So the Americans were all happy - shadows are gone!… But all the same shadows the
next day appeared in the majority of the emerging markets. This "franchise" had to be exported immediately abroad!
And what happened later? Later the shadows changed their faces and
came back to America.
But now they are no more shadows, we better call them ghosts
– as the main auditing companies in the US (not the government, as they have no
clue) estimate them for 10-20 trillion USD net worth for the last year… 5 years
ago during the collapse of Lehman's their value dropped to 8 trillion…
Nice right? So where did we get with all this money spent and all the regulation done?
The same day Mr. President waked up with the suggestion what to change; there were already
dozens of new ghosts created, before even he could take his morning coffee…
And here we stop a bit…
Some of you may remember the times of the real threat of the
global nuclear war.
But even those, for whom the Bay of Pigs invasion is a
history, might seen several films referring to the times of Cold War. In all this films some big guys were
carrying some metal coffers, in those coffers there were some codes and some
keys and before someone could launch a nuclear attack, they had to make a decision,
put in a lot of codes, keys and had to communicate to the enemy on some phones…
So why this was all done?
To avoid an unwanted incident and unwanted war.

As even 50 years ago, the military powers started to use
automatic control systems. Those systems could spot out the enemy and give a
reply in moments after they find out the treat. Far much faster, than any human being can do.
For the nuclear weapons they have also designed such
systems, but after a while they understood, that in case of a false signal, they
should not start a full scale nuclear war against each other risking by the way to wipe out the majority of the people on the Earth.
Why I describe all this?
Today most of the financial companies reacting based on
pre-written algorithms, specialised softwares. Meaning by automotive ways.
Without any hesitation, decisions are made in a quarter of
second and they sell or buy and react practically in an autonomous way.
The human contribution comes in giving the necessary tasks, programming and analysing the
data. Majority of the transactions today made by machines with random human
interference.
What happens on the level of the policy makers?
They have no system of spotting out the nature of the
financial transactions, the main flows and the possible future dangers. The amount of data they collect now proved to be useless in most of the cases together with the tools for analysing those data..
On the top of this they have no quick response systems. Ben's and Barack's delays during the last financial crisis cost trillions of dollars!

However the technology is there – just jump on the other side of the road
to the ministry of defence (or Pentagon:-))… It is all there… Not only the technology. but also the full know-how. At least they can make some use of those guys.
We have command control centres for everything, even for chicken farms, but not for economic decision making - nice right?
However this kind of technology can work, if the decision makers are aware of what they want to know and against what they want to
protect themselves… But to answer those questions we shall need to come back on
our triple question:
- - 3 dimensional economics;
- - Theory of relative economics;
- - Non reversible processes in economics
Until then, the biggest achievement of those decision makers was to make “stress tests”
over the banks…
Great – if you do not know how to swim, they can keep you
half a minute under the water and you shall be dead.
If you are a good swimmer
and have some time to exercise in advance, you shall survive probably even 3 minutes…
But will this help to you if a massive tsunami comes? No, definitely
not…
But no problem - let the banks learn how to swim, as swimming lessons are always good for health!
We shall follow next time from here…